Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

PSM Makassar vs Binh Duong — AFC Cup 2018

PSM Makassar
PSM Makassaradvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Binh Duong
Binh Duong
6/26/2019AFC CupAFC Cup · Zonal Semi-FinalsStadion Pakansari Bogor (Cibinong)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

PSM Makassar48%
×Draw25%
Binh Duong27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PSM Makassar
1.56
Binh Duong
1.09

PSM Makassar creates 43% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

creates per match

PSM Makassar
2.31
Binh Duong
0.80

allows per match

PSM Makassar
1.38
Binh Duong
0.80

finishing

PSM Makassar+0.00on par
Binh Duong+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PSM Makassar ↓

Binh Duong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

PSM Makassar or draw
73%
PSM Makassar or Binh Duong
75%
Draw or Binh Duong
52%

Winning margin

PSM Makassar wins by 2+
25%
Binh Duong wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

PSM Makassar 1+ goals
79%
PSM Makassar 2+ goals
46%
PSM Makassar 3+ goals
21%
Binh Duong 1+ goals
66%
Binh Duong 2+ goals
30%
Binh Duong 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

PSM Makassar (draw refunded)
64%
Binh Duong (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PSM Makassar at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

Binh Duong away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PSM Makassar attack 2.31 + Binh Duong defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.56

Binh Duong attack 0.80 + PSM Makassar defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

PSM Makassar scores more
48%
level
25%
Binh Duong scores more
27%

PSM Makassar at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "PSM Makassar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: PSM Makassar 2–1 Binh Duong

PSM Makassar beat Binh Duong 2-1 in AFC Cup on June 26, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Pakansari Bogor (Cibinong).