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Binh Duong vs PSM Makassar — AFC Cup 2018

Binh Duong
Binh Duongadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
PSM Makassar
PSM Makassar
6/19/2019AFC CupAFC Cup · Zonal Semi-FinalsSân vận động Gò Đậu (Go Dau Stadium) (Thủ Dầu Một (Thu Dau Mot))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Binh Duong47%
×Draw22%
PSM Makassar31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Binh Duong
1.88
PSM Makassar
1.50

Binh Duong creates 25% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

creates per match

Binh Duong
2.20
PSM Makassar
2.00

allows per match

Binh Duong
1.00
PSM Makassar
1.55

finishing

Binh Duong+0.00on par
PSM Makassar+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Binh Duong ↓

PSM Makassar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Binh Duong or draw
69%
Binh Duong or PSM Makassar
78%
Draw or PSM Makassar
53%

Winning margin

Binh Duong wins by 2+
26%
PSM Makassar wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Binh Duong 1+ goals
85%
Binh Duong 2+ goals
56%
Binh Duong 3+ goals
29%
PSM Makassar 1+ goals
78%
PSM Makassar 2+ goals
44%
PSM Makassar 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Binh Duong (draw refunded)
60%
PSM Makassar (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Binh Duong at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

PSM Makassar away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Binh Duong attack 2.20 + PSM Makassar defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.88

PSM Makassar attack 2.00 + Binh Duong defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Binh Duong scores more
47%
level
22%
PSM Makassar scores more
31%

Binh Duong at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Binh Duong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Binh Duong vs PSM Makassar

Binh Duong beat PSM Makassar 1-0 in AFC Cup on June 19, 2019.

The match was played at Sân vận động Gò Đậu (Go Dau Stadium) (Thủ Dầu Một (Thu Dau Mot)).