PSG U19 1–2 Newcastle United U19: Result & Stats

PSG U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Newcastle United U19

11/28/2023

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 5Stade Municipal Georges Lefèvre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

PSG U1964%

×Draw19%

Newcastle United U1917%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PSG U19Expected goals in this matchNewcastle United U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

1.07

PSG U19

2.26

Newcastle United U19

1.07

PSG U19 creates 111% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 6 away

2.36

creates per match

0.83

1.32

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

PSG U19

2.36

Newcastle United U19

0.83

allows per match

PSG U19

1.32

Newcastle United U19

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PSG U19+0.00on par

Newcastle United U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PSG U19 ↓

Newcastle United U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

PSG U19 or draw

83%

PSG U19 or Newcastle United U19

81%

Draw or Newcastle United U19

36%

Winning margin

PSG U19 wins by 2+

41%

Newcastle United U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

PSG U19 1+ goals

89%

PSG U19 2+ goals

66%

PSG U19 3+ goals

39%

Newcastle United U19 1+ goals

66%

Newcastle United U19 2+ goals

29%

Newcastle United U19 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

PSG U19 (draw refunded)

79%

Newcastle United U19 (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PSG U19 at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.32 · 22 matches

Newcastle United U19 away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PSG U19 attack 2.36 + Newcastle United U19 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.26

Newcastle United U19 attack 0.83 + PSG U19 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

PSG U19 scores more

64%

level

19%

Newcastle United U19 scores more

17%

PSG U19 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "PSG U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff