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Newcastle United U19 vs PSG U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Newcastle United U19
Newcastle United U19
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
PSG U19
PSG U19
10/4/2023UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 2Gateshead International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Newcastle United U1928%
×Draw20%
PSG U1952%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Newcastle United U19
1.68
PSG U19
2.34

PSG U19 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 21 away

creates per match

Newcastle United U19
1.50
PSG U19
2.19

allows per match

Newcastle United U19
2.50
PSG U19
1.86

finishing

Newcastle United U19+0.00on par
PSG U19+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle United U19 ↓

PSG U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Newcastle United U19 or draw
48%
Newcastle United U19 or PSG U19
80%
Draw or PSG U19
72%

Winning margin

Newcastle United U19 wins by 2+
13%
PSG U19 wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Newcastle United U19 1+ goals
81%
Newcastle United U19 2+ goals
50%
Newcastle United U19 3+ goals
24%
PSG U19 1+ goals
90%
PSG U19 2+ goals
67%
PSG U19 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Newcastle United U19 (draw refunded)
35%
PSG U19 (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle United U19 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

PSG U19 away — creates 2.19, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle United U19 attack 1.50 + PSG U19 defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.68

PSG U19 attack 2.19 + Newcastle United U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Newcastle United U19 scores more
28%
level
20%
PSG U19 scores more
52%

PSG U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "PSG U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Newcastle United U19 vs PSG U19

PSG U19 beat Newcastle United U19 1-0 in UEFA Youth League on October 4, 2023.

The match was played at Gateshead International Stadium in Gateshead, Tyne and Wear.