Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

PSG U19 vs Milan U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

PSG U19
PSG U19
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Milan U19
Milan U19
10/25/2023UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 3Stade Municipal Georges Lefèvre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

PSG U1961%
×Draw20%
Milan U1918%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PSG U19
2.13
Milan U19
1.07

PSG U19 creates 99% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 11 away

creates per match

PSG U19
2.36
Milan U19
0.82

allows per match

PSG U19
1.32
Milan U19
1.91

finishing

PSG U19+0.00on par
Milan U19+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PSG U19 ↓

Milan U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

PSG U19 or draw
82%
PSG U19 or Milan U19
80%
Draw or Milan U19
39%

Winning margin

PSG U19 wins by 2+
38%
Milan U19 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

PSG U19 1+ goals
88%
PSG U19 2+ goals
63%
PSG U19 3+ goals
35%
Milan U19 1+ goals
66%
Milan U19 2+ goals
29%
Milan U19 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

PSG U19 (draw refunded)
77%
Milan U19 (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PSG U19 at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.32 · 22 matches

Milan U19 away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PSG U19 attack 2.36 + Milan U19 defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.13

Milan U19 attack 0.82 + PSG U19 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

PSG U19 scores more
61%
level
20%
Milan U19 scores more
18%

PSG U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "PSG U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PSG U19 vs Milan U19

PSG U19 beat Milan U19 1-0 in UEFA Youth League on October 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Municipal Georges Lefèvre in Saint-Germain-en-Laye.