Milan U19 3–2 PSG U19: Result & Stats

Milan U19

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

PSG U19

11/7/2023

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 4Puma House of Football - Centro P. Vismara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Milan U1950%

×Draw22%

PSG U1928%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Milan U19Expected goals in this matchPSG U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.46

Milan U19

2.02

PSG U19

1.46

Milan U19 creates 38% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 21 away

2.18

creates per match

2.19

0.73

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Milan U19

2.18

PSG U19

2.19

allows per match

Milan U19

0.73

PSG U19

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Milan U19+0.00on par

PSG U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milan U19 ↓

PSG U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Milan U19 or draw

72%

Milan U19 or PSG U19

78%

Draw or PSG U19

50%

Winning margin

Milan U19 wins by 2+

29%

PSG U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Milan U19 1+ goals

87%

Milan U19 2+ goals

60%

Milan U19 3+ goals

33%

PSG U19 1+ goals

77%

PSG U19 2+ goals

43%

PSG U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Milan U19 (draw refunded)

64%

PSG U19 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milan U19 at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

PSG U19 away — creates 2.19, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milan U19 attack 2.18 + PSG U19 defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.02

PSG U19 attack 2.19 + Milan U19 defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Milan U19 scores more

50%

level

22%

PSG U19 scores more

28%

Milan U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Milan U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff