PSG U19 2–1 Crvena Zvezda U19: Result & Stats

PSG U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Crvena Zvezda U19

A. Fressange 80'

M. Kapo 8'

D. Joveljić 45+1'

10/3/2018

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 2Stade Municipal Georges Lefèvre (Saint-Germain-en-Laye)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

PSG U1963%

×Draw18%

Crvena Zvezda U1919%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PSG U19Expected goals in this matchCrvena Zvezda U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.56

1.35

PSG U19

2.56

Crvena Zvezda U19

1.35

PSG U19 creates 90% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 13 away

2.36

creates per match

1.38

1.32

allows per match

2.77

creates per match

PSG U19

2.36

Crvena Zvezda U19

1.38

allows per match

PSG U19

1.32

Crvena Zvezda U19

2.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PSG U19+0.00on par

Crvena Zvezda U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PSG U19 ↓

Crvena Zvezda U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

PSG U19 or draw

81%

PSG U19 or Crvena Zvezda U19

82%

Draw or Crvena Zvezda U19

37%

Winning margin

PSG U19 wins by 2+

42%

Crvena Zvezda U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

PSG U19 1+ goals

92%

PSG U19 2+ goals

72%

PSG U19 3+ goals

46%

Crvena Zvezda U19 1+ goals

74%

Crvena Zvezda U19 2+ goals

39%

Crvena Zvezda U19 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

PSG U19 (draw refunded)

77%

Crvena Zvezda U19 (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PSG U19 at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.32 · 22 matches

Crvena Zvezda U19 away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PSG U19 attack 2.36 + Crvena Zvezda U19 defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.56

Crvena Zvezda U19 attack 1.38 + PSG U19 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

PSG U19 scores more

63%

level

18%

Crvena Zvezda U19 scores more

19%

PSG U19 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "PSG U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

M. Kapo

45+1'

D. Joveljić↳ L. Velikić

61'

A. Fressange← T. Coulibaly

61'

K. Ruiz-Atil← R. Yapi

67'

N. Stajić← Đ. Kukolj

67'

M. Đorđević← L. Velikić

71'

A. Aouchiche← B. Fadiga

77'

B. Burmaz← N. Kupusović

77'

M. Stojanović← I. Stojančić

80'

A. Fressange↳ O. Yaisien

83'

E. Ajdinović← N. Adžibaba

87'

R. Nya← Z. Larkeche

PSG

Crvena

51

3

5

6

10

8

▼

Stojančić

2

▼

Kukolj

4

▼

Adžibaba

9

⚽

Joveljić

7

A

▼

Velikić

11

▼

1

5

4

3

▼

Larkeche

8

A

Yaisien

10

▼

Fadiga

6

⚽

Kapo

9

▼

Yapi

7

Muinga

2

Williams

11

▼

Coulibaly

Manager: T. Motta

61'▲A. Fressange←▼T. Coulibaly

61'▲K. Ruiz-Atil←▼R. Yapi

71'▲A. Aouchiche←▼B. Fadiga

87'▲R. Nya←▼Z. Larkeche

PSG U19 substitutes

12Fressange14Ruiz-Atil13Aouchiche17Nya15Fiawoo18Makutungu16Ouvry

Manager: B. Živković

67'▲N. Stajić←▼Đ. Kukolj

67'▲M. Đorđević←▼L. Velikić

77'▲B. Burmaz←▼N. Kupusović

77'▲M. Stojanović←▼I. Stojančić

83'▲E. Ajdinović←▼N. Adžibaba

Crvena Zvezda U19 substitutes

13Stajić17Đorđević18Burmaz16Stojanović14Ajdinović12Krstović15Savić

UEFA Youth League: PSG U19 2–1 Crvena Zvezda U19

PSG U19 beat Crvena Zvezda U19 2-1 in UEFA Youth League on October 3, 2018.

Goals: M. Kapo (8'), D. Joveljić (45+1'), A. Fressange (80').

The match was played at Stade Municipal Georges Lefèvre (Saint-Germain-en-Laye).

PSG U19 vs Crvena Zvezda U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: PSG U19 2–1 Crvena Zvezda U19