Crvena Zvezda U19 0–1 PSG U19: Result & Stats

Crvena Zvezda U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

PSG U19

A. Muinga 84'

12/11/2018

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 6Stadion na Banovom brdu (Beograd)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Crvena Zvezda U1935%

×Draw24%

PSG U1942%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crvena Zvezda U19Expected goals in this matchPSG U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.63

Crvena Zvezda U19

1.47

PSG U19

1.63

PSG U19 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 21 away

1.07

creates per match

2.19

1.07

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Crvena Zvezda U19

1.07

PSG U19

2.19

allows per match

Crvena Zvezda U19

1.07

PSG U19

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crvena Zvezda U19+0.00on par

PSG U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crvena Zvezda U19 ↓

PSG U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Crvena Zvezda U19 or draw

58%

Crvena Zvezda U19 or PSG U19

76%

Draw or PSG U19

65%

Winning margin

Crvena Zvezda U19 wins by 2+

16%

PSG U19 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Crvena Zvezda U19 1+ goals

77%

Crvena Zvezda U19 2+ goals

43%

Crvena Zvezda U19 3+ goals

18%

PSG U19 1+ goals

80%

PSG U19 2+ goals

48%

PSG U19 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Crvena Zvezda U19 (draw refunded)

45%

PSG U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crvena Zvezda U19 at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

PSG U19 away — creates 2.19, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crvena Zvezda U19 attack 1.07 + PSG U19 defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.47

PSG U19 attack 2.19 + Crvena Zvezda U19 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Crvena Zvezda U19 scores more

35%

level

24%

PSG U19 scores more

42%

PSG U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "PSG U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'

I. Stojančić← I. Babić

53'

M. Đorđević← L. Velikić

65'

T. Coulibaly← R. Providence

65'

K. Ruiz-Atil← C. Williams

68'

A. Radulović← B. Burmaz

73'

R. Yapi← R. Makutungu

73'

A. Muinga← O. Yaisien

82'

A. Puletić← E. Ajdinović

84'

A. Muinga

Crvena

PSG

1

Matimbou

5

Nya

2

▼

Makutungu

4

Kouassi

3

Larkeche

7

▼

10

8

9

11

▼

Providenc

6

▼

51

3

6

5

10

2

8

4

▼

Ajdinović

11

▼

Burmaz

7

▼

Velikić

9

▼

Babić

Manager: B. Živković

53'▲I. Stojančić←▼I. Babić

53'▲M. Đorđević←▼L. Velikić

68'▲A. Radulović←▼B. Burmaz

82'▲A. Puletić←▼E. Ajdinović

Crvena Zvezda U19 substitutes

15Stojančić17Đorđević16Radulović14Puletić13Ivanović12Krstović

Manager: T. Motta

65'▲T. Coulibaly←▼R. Providence

65'▲K. Ruiz-Atil←▼C. Williams

73'▲R. Yapi←▼R. Makutungu

73'▲A. Muinga←▼O. Yaisien

PSG U19 substitutes

17Coulibaly15Ruiz-Atil12Yapi14Muinga13Kapo16Ouvry

UEFA Youth League: Crvena Zvezda U19 0–1 PSG U19

PSG U19 beat Crvena Zvezda U19 1-0 in UEFA Youth League on December 11, 2018.

Goals: A. Muinga (84').

The match was played at Stadion na Banovom brdu (Beograd).

Crvena Zvezda U19 vs PSG U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Crvena Zvezda U19 0–1 PSG U19