PSG U19 0–1 Borussia Dortmund U19: Result & Stats

PSG U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Borussia Dortmund U19

9/19/2023

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 1Stade Municipal Georges Lefèvre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

PSG U1950%

×Draw21%

Borussia Dortmund U1928%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PSG U19Expected goals in this matchBorussia Dortmund U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.53

PSG U19

2.09

Borussia Dortmund U19

1.53

PSG U19 creates 37% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 23 away

2.36

creates per match

1.74

1.32

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

PSG U19

2.36

Borussia Dortmund U19

1.74

allows per match

PSG U19

1.32

Borussia Dortmund U19

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PSG U19+0.00on par

Borussia Dortmund U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PSG U19 ↓

Borussia Dortmund U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

PSG U19 or draw

72%

PSG U19 or Borussia Dortmund U19

79%

Draw or Borussia Dortmund U19

50%

Winning margin

PSG U19 wins by 2+

29%

Borussia Dortmund U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

PSG U19 1+ goals

88%

PSG U19 2+ goals

62%

PSG U19 3+ goals

34%

Borussia Dortmund U19 1+ goals

78%

Borussia Dortmund U19 2+ goals

45%

Borussia Dortmund U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

PSG U19 (draw refunded)

64%

Borussia Dortmund U19 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PSG U19 at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.32 · 22 matches

Borussia Dortmund U19 away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.83 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PSG U19 attack 2.36 + Borussia Dortmund U19 defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.09

Borussia Dortmund U19 attack 1.74 + PSG U19 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

PSG U19 scores more

50%

level

21%

Borussia Dortmund U19 scores more

28%

PSG U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "PSG U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff