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Borussia Dortmund U19 vs PSG U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Borussia Dortmund U19
Borussia Dortmund U19advanced
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
PSG U19
PSG U19
2/28/2023UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Round of 16Fußballpark BVB Hohenbuschei

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Borussia Dortmund U1939%
×Draw22%
PSG U1939%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borussia Dortmund U19
1.85
PSG U19
1.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 21 away

creates per match

Borussia Dortmund U19
1.84
PSG U19
2.19

allows per match

Borussia Dortmund U19
1.53
PSG U19
1.86

finishing

Borussia Dortmund U19+0.00on par
PSG U19+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borussia Dortmund U19 ↓

PSG U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Borussia Dortmund U19 or draw
61%
Borussia Dortmund U19 or PSG U19
78%
Draw or PSG U19
61%

Winning margin

Borussia Dortmund U19 wins by 2+
21%
PSG U19 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Borussia Dortmund U19 1+ goals
84%
Borussia Dortmund U19 2+ goals
55%
Borussia Dortmund U19 3+ goals
28%
PSG U19 1+ goals
84%
PSG U19 2+ goals
55%
PSG U19 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Borussia Dortmund U19 (draw refunded)
50%
PSG U19 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borussia Dortmund U19 at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

PSG U19 away — creates 2.19, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borussia Dortmund U19 attack 1.84 + PSG U19 defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.85

PSG U19 attack 2.19 + Borussia Dortmund U19 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Borussia Dortmund U19 scores more
39%
level
22%
PSG U19 scores more
39%

Borussia Dortmund U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Borussia Dortmund U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Youth League: Borussia Dortmund U19 1–1 PSG U19

Borussia Dortmund U19 and PSG U19 drew 1-1 in UEFA Youth League on February 28, 2023.

The match was played at Fußballpark BVB Hohenbuschei in Dortmund.