PSG U19 1–1 Bayern München U19: Result & Stats

PSG U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bayern München U19

I. Mzaouiyani 62'

M. Pudić 26'

9/27/2017

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 2Stade Municipal Georges Lefèvre (Saint-Germain-en-Laye)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

PSG U1949%

×Draw21%

Bayern München U1929%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PSG U19Expected goals in this matchBayern München U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.54

PSG U19

2.05

Bayern München U19

1.54

PSG U19 creates 33% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 20 away

2.36

creates per match

1.80

1.27

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

PSG U19

2.36

Bayern München U19

1.80

allows per match

PSG U19

1.27

Bayern München U19

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PSG U19+0.00on par

Bayern München U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PSG U19 ↓

Bayern München U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

PSG U19 or draw

71%

PSG U19 or Bayern München U19

79%

Draw or Bayern München U19

51%

Winning margin

PSG U19 wins by 2+

29%

Bayern München U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

PSG U19 1+ goals

87%

PSG U19 2+ goals

61%

PSG U19 3+ goals

33%

Bayern München U19 1+ goals

79%

Bayern München U19 2+ goals

45%

Bayern München U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

PSG U19 (draw refunded)

63%

Bayern München U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PSG U19 at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.27 · 22 matches

Bayern München U19 away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.75 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PSG U19 attack 2.36 + Bayern München U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.05

Bayern München U19 attack 1.80 + PSG U19 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

PSG U19 scores more

49%

level

21%

Bayern München U19 scores more

29%

PSG U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "PSG U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

M. Pudić

55'

I. Mzaouiyani← L. Callegari

62'

I. Mzaouiyani↳ M. Diaby

63'

V. Postolachi← M. Guclu

77'

E. Ebimbe← Y. Adli

79'

E. Kollmann← F. Evina

86'

A. Stiller← M. Pudić

90'

T. Heiland← M. Shabani

PSG

Bayern

1

5

4

12

16

10

▼

Shabani

6

Zaiser

9

Wintzheim

15

⚽

▼

Pudić

24

Jelisic

11

▼

Evina

1

Cibois

2

Georgen

7

▼

Callegari

4

Nsoki

6

Gomes

8

▼

Adli

9

▼

Guclu

10

A

11

5

3

Manager: F. Rodrigues

55'▲I. Mzaouiyani←▼L. Callegari

63'▲V. Postolachi←▼M. Guclu

77'▲E. Ebimbe←▼Y. Adli

PSG U19 substitutes

13Mzaouiyani12Postolachi15Ebimbe19Sissako16Chesneau14Flamant18Epailly

Manager: S. Hoeneb

79'▲E. Kollmann←▼F. Evina

86'▲A. Stiller←▼M. Pudić

90'▲T. Heiland←▼M. Shabani

Bayern München U19 substitutes

2Kollmann25Stiller22Heiland7Herrmann19Herrmann18Wagner8Zylla

UEFA Youth League: PSG U19 1–1 Bayern München U19

PSG U19 and Bayern München U19 drew 1-1 in UEFA Youth League on September 27, 2017.

Goals: M. Pudić (26'), I. Mzaouiyani (62').

The match was played at Stade Municipal Georges Lefèvre (Saint-Germain-en-Laye).

PSG U19 vs Bayern München U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: PSG U19 1–1 Bayern München U19