Bayern München U19 2–5 PSG U19: Result & Stats

Bayern München U19

FT

2 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

PSG U19

Y. Nasrawe 78' (pen)

A. Aznou 78'

M. Sangaré 70', 47', 36'

I. Mbaye 64', 8'

11/26/2024

UEFA Youth League · League Stage - 5FC Bayern Campus Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Bayern München U1939%

×Draw21%

PSG U1939%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bayern München U19Expected goals in this matchPSG U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

Bayern München U19

1.96

PSG U19

1.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

2.00

creates per match

2.14

1.77

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Bayern München U19

2.00

PSG U19

2.14

allows per match

Bayern München U19

1.77

PSG U19

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bayern München U19+0.00on par

PSG U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayern München U19 ↓

PSG U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Bayern München U19 or draw

61%

Bayern München U19 or PSG U19

79%

Draw or PSG U19

61%

Winning margin

Bayern München U19 wins by 2+

21%

PSG U19 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Bayern München U19 1+ goals

86%

Bayern München U19 2+ goals

58%

Bayern München U19 3+ goals

31%

PSG U19 1+ goals

86%

PSG U19 2+ goals

58%

PSG U19 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Bayern München U19 (draw refunded)

50%

PSG U19 (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayern München U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.77 · 22 matches

PSG U19 away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.91 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayern München U19 attack 2.00 + PSG U19 defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.96

PSG U19 attack 2.14 + Bayern München U19 defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bayern München U19 scores more

39%

level

21%

PSG U19 scores more

39%

Bayern München U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bayern München U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

36'

40'

45'

45+2'

46'

K. Rüger← N. Irankunda

47'

M. Sangaré↳ I. Mbaye

61'

N. Aseko-Nkili

64'

I. Mbaye↳ M. Sangaré

65'

S. Unsöld← J. Asp Jensen

65'

L. Richter← J. Kusi-Asare

65'

A. Ličina← G. Della Rovere

66'

H. Diandaga← D. Boly

70'

M. Sangaré↳ M. Diaby

73'

S. Unsold

74'

E. Mbemba← A. Tape

74'

A. Ayari← O. Camara

75'

R. Abo El Nay← M. Diaby

78'

Y. NasrawePenalty

78'

A. Aznou↳ S. Unsöld

86'

M. Scott← Y. Nasrawe

90+3'

M. Scott

Bayern

PSG

23

James

3

Cordier

4

Hannach

30

▼

Boly

6

A

▼

Diaby

8

A

Khafi

11

▼

Camara

15

Nzinga

12

▼

Tape

9

⚽3A

Sangaré

49

⚽2A

Mbaye

1

Klanac

3

⚽

4

5

2

6

8

▼

Jensen

11

▼

Rovere

10

⚽

▼

Nasrawe

7

▼

Irankunda

9

▼

Kusi-Asar

Manager: P. Gaydarov

46'▲K. Rüger←▼N. Irankunda

65'▲S. Unsöld←▼J. Asp Jensen

65'▲L. Richter←▼J. Kusi-Asare

65'▲A. Ličina←▼G. Della Rovere

86'▲M. Scott←▼Y. Nasrawe

Bayern München U19 substitutes

13Rüger20Unsöld14Richter16Ličina17Scott18Ruland19Mike15Chávez12Schäfer

Manager: D. Suarez

66'▲H. Diandaga←▼D. Boly

74'▲E. Mbemba←▼A. Tape

74'▲A. Ayari←▼O. Camara

75'▲R. Abo El Nay←▼M. Diaby

PSG U19 substitutes

17Diandaga35Mbemba20Ayari25Nay18Jangeal5Bagbonon33Ly39Sy

UEFA Youth League: Bayern München U19 2–5 PSG U19

PSG U19 beat Bayern München U19 5-2 in UEFA Youth League on November 26, 2024.

Goals: I. Mbaye (8', 64'), M. Sangaré (36', 47', 70'), Y. Nasrawe (78' pen), A. Aznou (78').

The match was played at FC Bayern Campus Platz 1 in München.

Bayern München U19 vs PSG U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Bayern München U19 2–5 PSG U19