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PS Kemi Kings vs SJK — Veikkausliiga 2018

PS Kemi Kings
PS Kemi Kings
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
SJK
SJK
8/25/2018VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 25Sauvosaaren urheilupuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

PS Kemi Kings31%
×Draw28%
SJK41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PS Kemi Kings
1.10
SJK
1.30

SJK creates 18% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 120 away

creates per match

PS Kemi Kings
0.82
SJK
1.20

allows per match

PS Kemi Kings
1.41
SJK
1.39

finishing

PS Kemi Kings+0.00on par
SJK+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PS Kemi Kings ↓

SJK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

PS Kemi Kings or draw
59%
PS Kemi Kings or SJK
72%
Draw or SJK
69%

Winning margin

PS Kemi Kings wins by 2+
12%
SJK wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

PS Kemi Kings 1+ goals
67%
PS Kemi Kings 2+ goals
30%
PS Kemi Kings 3+ goals
10%
SJK 1+ goals
73%
SJK 2+ goals
37%
SJK 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

PS Kemi Kings (draw refunded)
43%
SJK (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PS Kemi Kings at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

SJK away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.39 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PS Kemi Kings attack 0.82 + SJK defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.10

SJK attack 1.20 + PS Kemi Kings defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

PS Kemi Kings scores more
31%
level
28%
SJK scores more
41%

SJK at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "SJK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
Maksim Lipin
26'
Didier Kadio
27'
L. Laguerre← M. Lipin
48'
Jarkko Hurme
67'
Kristian Heinolainen
67'
Adam Vidjeskog← D. Imeri
67'
A. Mboma← A. Bååth
71'
Husein Demiri
74'
S. Rusculleda← H. Demiri
75'
E. Tendeng← D. Oliynyk
79'
Kristian Heinolainen
79'
Kristian Heinolainen
90'
Jean Felix Somay Moyengo Somy

Possession

49%PS

Shots

2PS

Statistics

PSSJK
Overview
49%Possession51%
2Total Shots4
3Corners5
19Fouls14
Shots
2Total Shots4
1On Target1
1Off Target3
Passing
49%Possession51%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
19Fouls14
4Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
0Offsides3

Veikkausliiga: PS Kemi Kings 0–0 SJK

PS Kemi Kings and SJK drew 0-0 in Veikkausliiga on August 25, 2018.

SJK controlled possession (51%) and registered 4 shots to 2.

The match was played at Sauvosaaren urheilupuisto in Kemi.