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PS Kemi Kings vs SJK — Veikkausliiga 2018

PS Kemi Kings
PS Kemi Kings
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
SJK
SJK
10/15/2017VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 31Sauvosaaren urheilupuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

PS Kemi Kings32%
×Draw27%
SJK41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PS Kemi Kings
1.17
SJK
1.35

SJK creates 15% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 121 away

creates per match

PS Kemi Kings
0.94
SJK
1.21

allows per match

PS Kemi Kings
1.50
SJK
1.40

finishing

PS Kemi Kings+0.00on par
SJK+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PS Kemi Kings ↓

SJK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

PS Kemi Kings or draw
59%
PS Kemi Kings or SJK
73%
Draw or SJK
68%

Winning margin

PS Kemi Kings wins by 2+
13%
SJK wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

PS Kemi Kings 1+ goals
69%
PS Kemi Kings 2+ goals
33%
PS Kemi Kings 3+ goals
11%
SJK 1+ goals
74%
SJK 2+ goals
39%
SJK 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

PS Kemi Kings (draw refunded)
44%
SJK (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PS Kemi Kings at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

SJK away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.40 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PS Kemi Kings attack 0.94 + SJK defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.17

SJK attack 1.21 + PS Kemi Kings defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

PS Kemi Kings scores more
32%
level
27%
SJK scores more
41%

SJK at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "SJK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PS Kemi Kings vs SJK

PS Kemi Kings and SJK drew 3-3 in Veikkausliiga on October 15, 2017.

The match was played at Sauvosaaren urheilupuisto in Kemi.