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PS Kemi Kings vs Mariehamn — Veikkausliiga 2018

PS Kemi Kings
PS Kemi Kings
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mariehamn
Mariehamn
10/21/2018VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 32Sauvosaaren urheilupuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

PS Kemi Kings38%
×Draw27%
Mariehamn35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PS Kemi Kings
1.32
Mariehamn
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 120 away

creates per match

PS Kemi Kings
0.94
Mariehamn
1.02

allows per match

PS Kemi Kings
1.50
Mariehamn
1.71

finishing

PS Kemi Kings+0.00on par
Mariehamn+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PS Kemi Kings ↓

Mariehamn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

PS Kemi Kings or draw
65%
PS Kemi Kings or Mariehamn
73%
Draw or Mariehamn
62%

Winning margin

PS Kemi Kings wins by 2+
17%
Mariehamn wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

PS Kemi Kings 1+ goals
73%
PS Kemi Kings 2+ goals
38%
PS Kemi Kings 3+ goals
15%
Mariehamn 1+ goals
72%
Mariehamn 2+ goals
36%
Mariehamn 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

PS Kemi Kings (draw refunded)
52%
Mariehamn (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PS Kemi Kings at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

Mariehamn away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.71 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PS Kemi Kings attack 0.94 + Mariehamn defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.32

Mariehamn attack 1.02 + PS Kemi Kings defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

PS Kemi Kings scores more
38%
level
27%
Mariehamn scores more
35%

PS Kemi Kings at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "PS Kemi Kings will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PS Kemi Kings vs Mariehamn

PS Kemi Kings beat Mariehamn 2-0 in Veikkausliiga on October 21, 2018.

The match was played at Sauvosaaren urheilupuisto in Kemi.