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Mariehamn vs PS Kemi Kings — Veikkausliiga 2018

Mariehamn
Mariehamn
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
PS Kemi Kings
PS Kemi Kings
6/25/2018VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 16Wiklöf Holding Arena (Maarianhamina (Mariehamn), Ahvenanmaa (Åland))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Mariehamn45%
×Draw25%
PS Kemi Kings30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mariehamn
1.52
PS Kemi Kings
1.18

Mariehamn creates 29% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 21 away

creates per match

Mariehamn
1.24
PS Kemi Kings
0.76

allows per match

Mariehamn
1.60
PS Kemi Kings
1.81

finishing

Mariehamn+0.00on par
PS Kemi Kings+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mariehamn ↓

PS Kemi Kings →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Mariehamn or draw
70%
Mariehamn or PS Kemi Kings
75%
Draw or PS Kemi Kings
55%

Winning margin

Mariehamn wins by 2+
22%
PS Kemi Kings wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Mariehamn 1+ goals
78%
Mariehamn 2+ goals
45%
Mariehamn 3+ goals
20%
PS Kemi Kings 1+ goals
69%
PS Kemi Kings 2+ goals
33%
PS Kemi Kings 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Mariehamn (draw refunded)
60%
PS Kemi Kings (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mariehamn at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.60 · 117 matches

PS Kemi Kings away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.81 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mariehamn attack 1.24 + PS Kemi Kings defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.52

PS Kemi Kings attack 0.76 + Mariehamn defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mariehamn scores more
45%
level
25%
PS Kemi Kings scores more
30%

Mariehamn at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mariehamn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Veikkausliiga: Mariehamn 2–1 PS Kemi Kings

Mariehamn beat PS Kemi Kings 2-1 in Veikkausliiga on June 25, 2018.

The match was played at Wiklöf Holding Arena (Maarianhamina (Mariehamn), Ahvenanmaa (Åland)).