Prykarpattia 1–2 Metal Kharkiv: Result & Stats

Prykarpattia

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Metal Kharkiv

11/10/2023

Persha Liga · Round 16Miskyi Tsentralnyi Stadion Rukh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Prykarpattia35%

×Draw28%

Metal Kharkiv37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PrykarpattiaExpected goals in this matchMetal Kharkiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.20

Prykarpattia

1.16

Metal Kharkiv

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 50 away

1.26

creates per match

1.34

1.05

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Prykarpattia

1.26

Metal Kharkiv

1.34

allows per match

Prykarpattia

1.05

Metal Kharkiv

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Prykarpattia+0.00on par

Metal Kharkiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prykarpattia ↓

Metal Kharkiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Prykarpattia or draw

63%

Prykarpattia or Metal Kharkiv

72%

Draw or Metal Kharkiv

65%

Winning margin

Prykarpattia wins by 2+

14%

Metal Kharkiv wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Prykarpattia 1+ goals

69%

Prykarpattia 2+ goals

32%

Prykarpattia 3+ goals

11%

Metal Kharkiv 1+ goals

70%

Metal Kharkiv 2+ goals

34%

Metal Kharkiv 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Prykarpattia (draw refunded)

49%

Metal Kharkiv (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prykarpattia at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.05 · 92 matches

Metal Kharkiv away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.06 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prykarpattia attack 1.26 + Metal Kharkiv defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.16

Metal Kharkiv attack 1.34 + Prykarpattia defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Prykarpattia scores more

35%

level

28%

Metal Kharkiv scores more

37%

Metal Kharkiv at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Metal Kharkiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff