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Metal Kharkiv vs Prykarpattia — Persha Liga 2019

Metal Kharkiv
Metal Kharkiv
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Prykarpattia
Prykarpattia
9/13/2025Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 6OSC Metalist

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Metal Kharkiv48%
×Draw26%
Prykarpattia26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metal Kharkiv
1.50
Prykarpattia
1.02

Metal Kharkiv creates 47% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 91 away

creates per match

Metal Kharkiv
1.44
Prykarpattia
1.11

allows per match

Metal Kharkiv
0.92
Prykarpattia
1.56

finishing

Metal Kharkiv+0.00on par
Prykarpattia+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metal Kharkiv ↓

Prykarpattia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Metal Kharkiv or draw
74%
Metal Kharkiv or Prykarpattia
74%
Draw or Prykarpattia
52%

Winning margin

Metal Kharkiv wins by 2+
24%
Prykarpattia wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Metal Kharkiv 1+ goals
78%
Metal Kharkiv 2+ goals
44%
Metal Kharkiv 3+ goals
19%
Prykarpattia 1+ goals
64%
Prykarpattia 2+ goals
27%
Prykarpattia 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Metal Kharkiv (draw refunded)
65%
Prykarpattia (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metal Kharkiv at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.92 · 50 matches

Prykarpattia away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metal Kharkiv attack 1.44 + Prykarpattia defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.50

Prykarpattia attack 1.11 + Metal Kharkiv defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Metal Kharkiv scores more
48%
level
26%
Prykarpattia scores more
26%

Metal Kharkiv at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Metal Kharkiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Metal Kharkiv vs Prykarpattia

Metal Kharkiv and Prykarpattia drew 2-2 in Persha Liga on September 13, 2025.

The match was played at OSC Metalist in Kharkiv.