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Prva Iskra vs Padinska Skela — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Prva Iskra
Prva Iskra
FT
2 – 0
Padinska Skela
Padinska Skela
8/19/2023Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 2Stadion FK Prva Iskra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Prva Iskra47%
×Draw25%
Padinska Skela28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Prva Iskra
1.59
Padinska Skela
1.16

Prva Iskra creates 37% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 27 away

creates per match

Prva Iskra
1.41
Padinska Skela
1.00

allows per match

Prva Iskra
1.32
Padinska Skela
1.78

finishing

Prva Iskra+0.00on par
Padinska Skela+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prva Iskra ↓

Padinska Skela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Prva Iskra or draw
72%
Prva Iskra or Padinska Skela
75%
Draw or Padinska Skela
53%

Winning margin

Prva Iskra wins by 2+
24%
Padinska Skela wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Prva Iskra 1+ goals
80%
Prva Iskra 2+ goals
47%
Prva Iskra 3+ goals
21%
Padinska Skela 1+ goals
69%
Padinska Skela 2+ goals
32%
Padinska Skela 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Prva Iskra (draw refunded)
63%
Padinska Skela (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prva Iskra at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.32 · 71 matches

Padinska Skela away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.78 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prva Iskra attack 1.41 + Padinska Skela defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.59

Padinska Skela attack 1.00 + Prva Iskra defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Prva Iskra scores more
47%
level
25%
Padinska Skela scores more
28%

Prva Iskra at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Prva Iskra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Belgrade: Prva Iskra 2–0 Padinska Skela

Prva Iskra beat Padinska Skela 2-0 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Prva Iskra in Barič.