Padinska Skela 2–2 Prva Iskra: Result & Stats

Padinska Skela

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Prva Iskra

10/11/2025

Srpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Padinska Skela43%

×Draw26%

Prva Iskra31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Padinska SkelaExpected goals in this matchPrva Iskra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.15

Padinska Skela

1.40

Prva Iskra

1.15

Padinska Skela creates 22% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 71 away

1.36

creates per match

1.23

1.07

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Padinska Skela

1.36

Prva Iskra

1.23

allows per match

Padinska Skela

1.07

Prva Iskra

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Padinska Skela+0.00on par

Prva Iskra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padinska Skela ↓

Prva Iskra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Padinska Skela or draw

69%

Padinska Skela or Prva Iskra

74%

Draw or Prva Iskra

57%

Winning margin

Padinska Skela wins by 2+

20%

Prva Iskra wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Padinska Skela 1+ goals

75%

Padinska Skela 2+ goals

41%

Padinska Skela 3+ goals

17%

Prva Iskra 1+ goals

68%

Prva Iskra 2+ goals

32%

Prva Iskra 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Padinska Skela (draw refunded)

58%

Prva Iskra (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padinska Skela at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.07 · 28 matches

Prva Iskra away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.44 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padinska Skela attack 1.36 + Prva Iskra defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.40

Prva Iskra attack 1.23 + Padinska Skela defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Padinska Skela scores more

43%

level

26%

Prva Iskra scores more

31%

Padinska Skela at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Padinska Skela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff