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Prva Iskra vs Jedinstvo Su — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Prva Iskra
Prva Iskra
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Jedinstvo Su
Jedinstvo Su
10/26/2024Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 11Stadion FK Prva Iskra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Prva Iskra43%
×Draw26%
Jedinstvo Su31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Prva Iskra
1.42
Jedinstvo Su
1.16

Prva Iskra creates 22% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 100 away

creates per match

Prva Iskra
1.41
Jedinstvo Su
0.99

allows per match

Prva Iskra
1.32
Jedinstvo Su
1.43

finishing

Prva Iskra+0.00on par
Jedinstvo Su+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prva Iskra ↓

Jedinstvo Su →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Prva Iskra or draw
69%
Prva Iskra or Jedinstvo Su
74%
Draw or Jedinstvo Su
57%

Winning margin

Prva Iskra wins by 2+
21%
Jedinstvo Su wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Prva Iskra 1+ goals
76%
Prva Iskra 2+ goals
41%
Prva Iskra 3+ goals
17%
Jedinstvo Su 1+ goals
69%
Jedinstvo Su 2+ goals
32%
Jedinstvo Su 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Prva Iskra (draw refunded)
58%
Jedinstvo Su (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prva Iskra at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.32 · 71 matches

Jedinstvo Su away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.43 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prva Iskra attack 1.41 + Jedinstvo Su defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.42

Jedinstvo Su attack 0.99 + Prva Iskra defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Prva Iskra scores more
43%
level
26%
Jedinstvo Su scores more
31%

Prva Iskra at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Prva Iskra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Belgrade: Prva Iskra 0–2 Jedinstvo Su

Jedinstvo Su beat Prva Iskra 2-0 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FK Prva Iskra in Barič.