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Jedinstvo Su vs Prva Iskra — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Jedinstvo Su
Jedinstvo Su
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Prva Iskra
Prva Iskra
5/18/2025Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 24Stadion FK Jedinstvo Surčin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Jedinstvo Su43%
×Draw27%
Prva Iskra30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jedinstvo Su
1.38
Prva Iskra
1.11

Jedinstvo Su creates 24% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 71 away

creates per match

Jedinstvo Su
1.31
Prva Iskra
1.23

allows per match

Jedinstvo Su
1.00
Prva Iskra
1.44

finishing

Jedinstvo Su+0.00on par
Prva Iskra+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Su ↓

Prva Iskra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Su or draw
70%
Jedinstvo Su or Prva Iskra
73%
Draw or Prva Iskra
57%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Su wins by 2+
20%
Prva Iskra wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Su 1+ goals
75%
Jedinstvo Su 2+ goals
40%
Jedinstvo Su 3+ goals
16%
Prva Iskra 1+ goals
67%
Prva Iskra 2+ goals
30%
Prva Iskra 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Su (draw refunded)
59%
Prva Iskra (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Su at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.00 · 97 matches

Prva Iskra away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.44 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Su attack 1.31 + Prva Iskra defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.38

Prva Iskra attack 1.23 + Jedinstvo Su defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Jedinstvo Su scores more
43%
level
27%
Prva Iskra scores more
30%

Jedinstvo Su at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Jedinstvo Su will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jedinstvo Su vs Prva Iskra

Prva Iskra beat Jedinstvo Su 3-1 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on May 18, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion FK Jedinstvo Surčin in Beograd.