Provincial 2–3 Deportivo Camioneros: Result & Stats

Provincial

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Deportivo Camioneros

7/27/2024

Torneo Promocional Amateur · Clausura - 2Estadio Enrique Chiosso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Provincial20%

×Draw24%

Deportivo Camioneros56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ProvincialExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Camioneros

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

1.66

Provincial

0.88

Deportivo Camioneros

1.66

Deportivo Camioneros creates 89% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 13 away

0.91

creates per match

2.23

1.09

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Provincial

0.91

Deportivo Camioneros

2.23

allows per match

Provincial

1.09

Deportivo Camioneros

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Provincial+0.00on par

Deportivo Camioneros+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Provincial ↓

Deportivo Camioneros →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–113%

0–211%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Provincial or draw

44%

Provincial or Deportivo Camioneros

76%

Draw or Deportivo Camioneros

80%

Winning margin

Provincial wins by 2+

6%

Deportivo Camioneros wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Provincial 1+ goals

59%

Provincial 2+ goals

22%

Provincial 3+ goals

6%

Deportivo Camioneros 1+ goals

81%

Deportivo Camioneros 2+ goals

49%

Deportivo Camioneros 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Provincial (draw refunded)

26%

Deportivo Camioneros (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Provincial at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.09 · 22 matches

Deportivo Camioneros away — creates 2.23, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Provincial attack 0.91 + Deportivo Camioneros defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.88

Deportivo Camioneros attack 2.23 + Provincial defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Provincial scores more

20%

level

24%

Deportivo Camioneros scores more

56%

Deportivo Camioneros at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Deportivo Camioneros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff