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Deportivo Camioneros vs Provincial — Torneo Promocional Amateur 2026

Deportivo Camioneros
Deportivo Camioneros
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Provincial
Provincial
3/3/2024Torneo Promocional AmateurTorneo Promocional Amateur · Apertura - 2Estadio Hugo Moyano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Deportivo Camioneros63%
×Draw21%
Provincial17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Camioneros
2.06
Provincial
0.95

Deportivo Camioneros creates 117% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 21 away

creates per match

Deportivo Camioneros
2.36
Provincial
1.19

allows per match

Deportivo Camioneros
0.71
Provincial
1.76

finishing

Deportivo Camioneros+0.00on par
Provincial+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Camioneros ↓

Provincial →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Deportivo Camioneros or draw
83%
Deportivo Camioneros or Provincial
79%
Draw or Provincial
37%

Winning margin

Deportivo Camioneros wins by 2+
39%
Provincial wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Deportivo Camioneros 1+ goals
87%
Deportivo Camioneros 2+ goals
61%
Deportivo Camioneros 3+ goals
34%
Provincial 1+ goals
61%
Provincial 2+ goals
25%
Provincial 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Camioneros (draw refunded)
79%
Provincial (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Camioneros at home — creates 2.36, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Provincial away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Camioneros attack 2.36 + Provincial defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.06

Provincial attack 1.19 + Deportivo Camioneros defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Deportivo Camioneros scores more
63%
level
21%
Provincial scores more
17%

Deportivo Camioneros at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Deportivo Camioneros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Camioneros vs Provincial

Deportivo Camioneros beat Provincial 4-1 in Torneo Promocional Amateur on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Hugo Moyano in Estéban Echeverría, Provincia de Buenos Aires.