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Provincial vs Atletico Pilar — Torneo Promocional Amateur 2026

Provincial
Provincial
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atletico Pilar
Atletico Pilar
8/10/2024Torneo Promocional AmateurTorneo Promocional Amateur · Clausura - 4Estadio Enrique Chiosso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Provincial47%
×Draw27%
Atletico Pilar26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Provincial
1.39
Atletico Pilar
0.95

Provincial creates 46% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 21 away

creates per match

Provincial
0.91
Atletico Pilar
0.81

allows per match

Provincial
1.09
Atletico Pilar
1.86

finishing

Provincial+0.00on par
Atletico Pilar+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Provincial ↓

Atletico Pilar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Provincial or draw
74%
Provincial or Atletico Pilar
73%
Draw or Atletico Pilar
53%

Winning margin

Provincial wins by 2+
23%
Atletico Pilar wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Provincial 1+ goals
75%
Provincial 2+ goals
40%
Provincial 3+ goals
16%
Atletico Pilar 1+ goals
61%
Atletico Pilar 2+ goals
25%
Atletico Pilar 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Provincial (draw refunded)
65%
Atletico Pilar (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Provincial at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.09 · 22 matches

Atletico Pilar away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Provincial attack 0.91 + Atletico Pilar defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.39

Atletico Pilar attack 0.81 + Provincial defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Provincial scores more
47%
level
27%
Atletico Pilar scores more
26%

Provincial at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Provincial will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Provincial vs Atletico Pilar

Provincial beat Atletico Pilar 2-0 in Torneo Promocional Amateur on August 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Enrique Chiosso in Lobos, Provincia de Buenos Aires.