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Atletico Pilar vs Provincial — Torneo Promocional Amateur 2026

Atletico Pilar
Atletico Pilar
FT
0 – 0
Provincial
Provincial
3/17/2024Torneo Promocional AmateurTorneo Promocional Amateur · Apertura - 4Estadio Municipal de Pilar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Atletico Pilar37%
×Draw25%
Provincial38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Pilar
1.45
Provincial
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 21 away

creates per match

Atletico Pilar
1.14
Provincial
1.19

allows per match

Atletico Pilar
1.73
Provincial
1.76

finishing

Atletico Pilar+0.00on par
Provincial+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Pilar ↓

Provincial →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Atletico Pilar or draw
62%
Atletico Pilar or Provincial
75%
Draw or Provincial
63%

Winning margin

Atletico Pilar wins by 2+
18%
Provincial wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Atletico Pilar 1+ goals
77%
Atletico Pilar 2+ goals
42%
Atletico Pilar 3+ goals
18%
Provincial 1+ goals
77%
Provincial 2+ goals
43%
Provincial 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Atletico Pilar (draw refunded)
50%
Provincial (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Pilar at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.73 · 22 matches

Provincial away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Pilar attack 1.14 + Provincial defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.45

Provincial attack 1.19 + Atletico Pilar defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Atletico Pilar scores more
37%
level
25%
Provincial scores more
38%

Provincial at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Provincial will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Promocional Amateur: Atletico Pilar 0–0 Provincial

Atletico Pilar and Provincial drew 0-0 in Torneo Promocional Amateur on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Pilar in Partido de Pilar, Provincia de Buenos Aires.