Provincial Osorno 3–0 Municipal Salamanca

Provincial Osorno

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Municipal Salamanca

6/21/2025

Segunda División · Round 13Estadio Municipal Rubén Marcos Peralta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Provincial Osorno45%

×Draw26%

Municipal Salamanca29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Provincial OsornoExpected goals in this matchMunicipal Salamanca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.12

Provincial Osorno

1.48

Municipal Salamanca

1.12

Provincial Osorno creates 32% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 18 away

1.64

creates per match

1.17

1.07

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Provincial Osorno

1.64

Municipal Salamanca

1.17

allows per match

Provincial Osorno

1.07

Municipal Salamanca

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Provincial Osorno+0.00on par

Municipal Salamanca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Provincial Osorno ↓

Municipal Salamanca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Provincial Osorno or draw

71%

Provincial Osorno or Municipal Salamanca

74%

Draw or Municipal Salamanca

55%

Winning margin

Provincial Osorno wins by 2+

22%

Municipal Salamanca wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Provincial Osorno 1+ goals

77%

Provincial Osorno 2+ goals

43%

Provincial Osorno 3+ goals

19%

Municipal Salamanca 1+ goals

67%

Municipal Salamanca 2+ goals

31%

Municipal Salamanca 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Provincial Osorno (draw refunded)

61%

Municipal Salamanca (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Provincial Osorno at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 44 matches

Municipal Salamanca away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Provincial Osorno attack 1.64 + Municipal Salamanca defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.48

Municipal Salamanca attack 1.17 + Provincial Osorno defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Provincial Osorno scores more

45%

level

26%

Municipal Salamanca scores more

29%

Provincial Osorno at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Provincial Osorno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff