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Municipal Salamanca vs Provincial Osorno — Segunda División 2020

Municipal Salamanca
Municipal Salamanca
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Provincial Osorno
Provincial Osorno
11/29/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 26Estadio Municipal de Salamanca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Municipal Salamanca51%
×Draw27%
Provincial Osorno22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Municipal Salamanca
1.43
Provincial Osorno
0.85

Municipal Salamanca creates 68% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 43 away

creates per match

Municipal Salamanca
1.28
Provincial Osorno
1.26

allows per match

Municipal Salamanca
0.44
Provincial Osorno
1.58

finishing

Municipal Salamanca+0.00on par
Provincial Osorno+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Municipal Salamanca ↓

Provincial Osorno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Municipal Salamanca or draw
78%
Municipal Salamanca or Provincial Osorno
73%
Draw or Provincial Osorno
49%

Winning margin

Municipal Salamanca wins by 2+
25%
Provincial Osorno wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Municipal Salamanca 1+ goals
76%
Municipal Salamanca 2+ goals
42%
Municipal Salamanca 3+ goals
17%
Provincial Osorno 1+ goals
57%
Provincial Osorno 2+ goals
21%
Provincial Osorno 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Municipal Salamanca (draw refunded)
69%
Provincial Osorno (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Municipal Salamanca at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.44 · 18 matches

Provincial Osorno away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.58 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Municipal Salamanca attack 1.28 + Provincial Osorno defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.43

Provincial Osorno attack 1.26 + Municipal Salamanca defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Municipal Salamanca scores more
51%
level
27%
Provincial Osorno scores more
22%

Municipal Salamanca at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Municipal Salamanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Municipal Salamanca vs Provincial Osorno

Municipal Salamanca and Provincial Osorno drew 1-1 in Segunda División on November 29, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Salamanca in Salamanca.