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Provincial Osorno vs General Velásquez — Segunda División 2020

Provincial Osorno
Provincial Osorno
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
General Velásquez
General Velásquez
7/27/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 16Estadio Municipal Rubén Marcos Peralta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Provincial Osorno47%
×Draw26%
General Velásquez27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Provincial Osorno
1.48
General Velásquez
1.06

Provincial Osorno creates 40% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 77 away

creates per match

Provincial Osorno
1.64
General Velásquez
1.06

allows per match

Provincial Osorno
1.07
General Velásquez
1.31

finishing

Provincial Osorno+0.00on par
General Velásquez+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Provincial Osorno ↓

General Velásquez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Provincial Osorno or draw
73%
Provincial Osorno or General Velásquez
74%
Draw or General Velásquez
53%

Winning margin

Provincial Osorno wins by 2+
23%
General Velásquez wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Provincial Osorno 1+ goals
77%
Provincial Osorno 2+ goals
43%
Provincial Osorno 3+ goals
19%
General Velásquez 1+ goals
65%
General Velásquez 2+ goals
29%
General Velásquez 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Provincial Osorno (draw refunded)
63%
General Velásquez (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Provincial Osorno at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 44 matches

General Velásquez away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.31 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Provincial Osorno attack 1.64 + General Velásquez defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.48

General Velásquez attack 1.06 + Provincial Osorno defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Provincial Osorno scores more
47%
level
26%
General Velásquez scores more
27%

Provincial Osorno at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Provincial Osorno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Provincial Osorno vs General Velásquez

General Velásquez beat Provincial Osorno 3-2 in Segunda División on July 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Rubén Marcos Peralta in Osorno.