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General Velásquez vs Provincial Osorno — Segunda División 2020

General Velásquez
General Velásquez
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Provincial Osorno
Provincial Osorno
5/3/2026Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

General Velásquez45%
×Draw26%
Provincial Osorno29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

General Velásquez
1.50
Provincial Osorno
1.15

General Velásquez creates 30% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 43 away

creates per match

General Velásquez
1.43
Provincial Osorno
1.26

allows per match

General Velásquez
1.03
Provincial Osorno
1.58

finishing

General Velásquez+0.00on par
Provincial Osorno+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Velásquez ↓

Provincial Osorno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

General Velásquez or draw
71%
General Velásquez or Provincial Osorno
74%
Draw or Provincial Osorno
55%

Winning margin

General Velásquez wins by 2+
22%
Provincial Osorno wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

General Velásquez 1+ goals
78%
General Velásquez 2+ goals
44%
General Velásquez 3+ goals
19%
Provincial Osorno 1+ goals
68%
Provincial Osorno 2+ goals
32%
Provincial Osorno 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

General Velásquez (draw refunded)
61%
Provincial Osorno (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Velásquez at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.03 · 77 matches

Provincial Osorno away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.58 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Velásquez attack 1.43 + Provincial Osorno defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.50

Provincial Osorno attack 1.26 + General Velásquez defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

General Velásquez scores more
45%
level
26%
Provincial Osorno scores more
29%

General Velásquez at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "General Velásquez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: General Velásquez vs Provincial Osorno

Provincial Osorno beat General Velásquez 1-0 in Segunda División on May 3, 2026.