Provincial Osorno 1–0 Fernández Vial

Provincial Osorno

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fernández Vial

3/23/2024

Segunda División · Round 4Estadio Municipal Rubén Marcos Peralta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Provincial Osorno41%

×Draw27%

Fernández Vial32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Provincial OsornoExpected goals in this matchFernández Vial

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.14

Provincial Osorno

1.32

Fernández Vial

1.14

Provincial Osorno creates 16% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 38 away

1.64

creates per match

1.21

1.07

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Provincial Osorno

1.64

Fernández Vial

1.21

allows per match

Provincial Osorno

1.07

Fernández Vial

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Provincial Osorno+0.00on par

Fernández Vial+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Provincial Osorno ↓

Fernández Vial →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Provincial Osorno or draw

68%

Provincial Osorno or Fernández Vial

73%

Draw or Fernández Vial

59%

Winning margin

Provincial Osorno wins by 2+

19%

Fernández Vial wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Provincial Osorno 1+ goals

73%

Provincial Osorno 2+ goals

38%

Provincial Osorno 3+ goals

15%

Fernández Vial 1+ goals

68%

Fernández Vial 2+ goals

32%

Fernández Vial 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Provincial Osorno (draw refunded)

56%

Fernández Vial (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Provincial Osorno at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 44 matches

Fernández Vial away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Provincial Osorno attack 1.64 + Fernández Vial defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.32

Fernández Vial attack 1.21 + Provincial Osorno defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Provincial Osorno scores more

41%

level

27%

Fernández Vial scores more

32%

Provincial Osorno at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Provincial Osorno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff