Fernández Vial 1–2 Provincial Osorno

Fernández Vial

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Provincial Osorno

3/18/2023

Segunda División · Round 4Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Fernández Vial42%

×Draw27%

Provincial Osorno31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fernández VialExpected goals in this matchProvincial Osorno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.13

Fernández Vial

1.35

Provincial Osorno

1.13

Fernández Vial creates 19% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 43 away

1.11

creates per match

1.26

1.00

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Fernández Vial

1.11

Provincial Osorno

1.26

allows per match

Fernández Vial

1.00

Provincial Osorno

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fernández Vial+0.00on par

Provincial Osorno+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fernández Vial ↓

Provincial Osorno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Fernández Vial or draw

69%

Fernández Vial or Provincial Osorno

73%

Draw or Provincial Osorno

58%

Winning margin

Fernández Vial wins by 2+

19%

Provincial Osorno wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Fernández Vial 1+ goals

74%

Fernández Vial 2+ goals

39%

Fernández Vial 3+ goals

15%

Provincial Osorno 1+ goals

68%

Provincial Osorno 2+ goals

31%

Provincial Osorno 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Fernández Vial (draw refunded)

57%

Provincial Osorno (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fernández Vial at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.00 · 37 matches

Provincial Osorno away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.58 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fernández Vial attack 1.11 + Provincial Osorno defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.35

Provincial Osorno attack 1.26 + Fernández Vial defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fernández Vial scores more

42%

level

27%

Provincial Osorno scores more

31%

Fernández Vial at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fernández Vial will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff