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Provincial Osorno vs Deportes Valdivia — Segunda División 2020

Provincial Osorno
Provincial Osorno
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Deportes Valdivia
Deportes Valdivia
7/8/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 14Estadio Municipal Rubén Marcos Peralta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Provincial Osorno47%
×Draw26%
Deportes Valdivia27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Provincial Osorno
1.52
Deportes Valdivia
1.09

Provincial Osorno creates 39% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 35 away

creates per match

Provincial Osorno
1.64
Deportes Valdivia
1.11

allows per match

Provincial Osorno
1.07
Deportes Valdivia
1.40

finishing

Provincial Osorno+0.00on par
Deportes Valdivia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Provincial Osorno ↓

Deportes Valdivia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Provincial Osorno or draw
73%
Provincial Osorno or Deportes Valdivia
74%
Draw or Deportes Valdivia
53%

Winning margin

Provincial Osorno wins by 2+
24%
Deportes Valdivia wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Provincial Osorno 1+ goals
78%
Provincial Osorno 2+ goals
45%
Provincial Osorno 3+ goals
20%
Deportes Valdivia 1+ goals
66%
Deportes Valdivia 2+ goals
30%
Deportes Valdivia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Provincial Osorno (draw refunded)
63%
Deportes Valdivia (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Provincial Osorno at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 44 matches

Deportes Valdivia away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.40 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Provincial Osorno attack 1.64 + Deportes Valdivia defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.52

Deportes Valdivia attack 1.11 + Provincial Osorno defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Provincial Osorno scores more
47%
level
26%
Deportes Valdivia scores more
27%

Provincial Osorno at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Provincial Osorno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Provincial Osorno 2–1 Deportes Valdivia

Provincial Osorno beat Deportes Valdivia 2-1 in Segunda División on July 8, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Rubén Marcos Peralta in Osorno.