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Deportes Valdivia vs Provincial Osorno — Segunda División 2020

Deportes Valdivia
Deportes Valdivia
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Provincial Osorno
Provincial Osorno
2/26/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 1Estadio El Parque Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Deportes Valdivia43%
×Draw26%
Provincial Osorno31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportes Valdivia
1.45
Provincial Osorno
1.18

Deportes Valdivia creates 23% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 43 away

creates per match

Deportes Valdivia
1.31
Provincial Osorno
1.26

allows per match

Deportes Valdivia
1.09
Provincial Osorno
1.58

finishing

Deportes Valdivia+0.00on par
Provincial Osorno+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Valdivia ↓

Provincial Osorno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Deportes Valdivia or draw
69%
Deportes Valdivia or Provincial Osorno
74%
Draw or Provincial Osorno
57%

Winning margin

Deportes Valdivia wins by 2+
21%
Provincial Osorno wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Deportes Valdivia 1+ goals
77%
Deportes Valdivia 2+ goals
42%
Deportes Valdivia 3+ goals
18%
Provincial Osorno 1+ goals
69%
Provincial Osorno 2+ goals
33%
Provincial Osorno 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Deportes Valdivia (draw refunded)
58%
Provincial Osorno (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Valdivia at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.09 · 35 matches

Provincial Osorno away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.58 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Valdivia attack 1.31 + Provincial Osorno defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.45

Provincial Osorno attack 1.26 + Deportes Valdivia defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Deportes Valdivia scores more
43%
level
26%
Provincial Osorno scores more
31%

Deportes Valdivia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Deportes Valdivia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportes Valdivia vs Provincial Osorno

Provincial Osorno beat Deportes Valdivia 2-0 in Segunda División on February 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio El Parque Municipal in Valdivia.