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Provincial Osorno vs D. Puerto Montt — Segunda División 2020

Provincial Osorno
Provincial Osorno
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
D. Puerto Montt
D. Puerto Montt
9/7/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 22Estadio Municipal Rubén Marcos Peralta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Provincial Osorno38%
×Draw27%
D. Puerto Montt35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Provincial Osorno
1.32
D. Puerto Montt
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 25 away

creates per match

Provincial Osorno
1.64
D. Puerto Montt
1.44

allows per match

Provincial Osorno
1.07
D. Puerto Montt
1.00

finishing

Provincial Osorno+0.00on par
D. Puerto Montt+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Provincial Osorno ↓

D. Puerto Montt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Provincial Osorno or draw
65%
Provincial Osorno or D. Puerto Montt
73%
Draw or D. Puerto Montt
62%

Winning margin

Provincial Osorno wins by 2+
17%
D. Puerto Montt wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Provincial Osorno 1+ goals
73%
Provincial Osorno 2+ goals
38%
Provincial Osorno 3+ goals
15%
D. Puerto Montt 1+ goals
71%
D. Puerto Montt 2+ goals
36%
D. Puerto Montt 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Provincial Osorno (draw refunded)
52%
D. Puerto Montt (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Provincial Osorno at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 44 matches

D. Puerto Montt away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.00 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Provincial Osorno attack 1.64 + D. Puerto Montt defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.32

D. Puerto Montt attack 1.44 + Provincial Osorno defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Provincial Osorno scores more
38%
level
27%
D. Puerto Montt scores more
35%

Provincial Osorno at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Provincial Osorno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Provincial Osorno vs D. Puerto Montt

Provincial Osorno and D. Puerto Montt drew 0-0 in Segunda División on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Rubén Marcos Peralta in Osorno.