D. Puerto Montt 1–0 Provincial Osorno

D. Puerto Montt

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Provincial Osorno

4/28/2024

Segunda División · Round 9Estadio Bicentenario de Chinquihue

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

D. Puerto Montt56%

×Draw23%

Provincial Osorno21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

D. Puerto MonttExpected goals in this matchProvincial Osorno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.99

D. Puerto Montt

1.77

Provincial Osorno

0.99

D. Puerto Montt creates 79% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 43 away

1.96

creates per match

1.26

0.72

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

D. Puerto Montt

1.96

Provincial Osorno

1.26

allows per match

D. Puerto Montt

0.72

Provincial Osorno

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

D. Puerto Montt+0.00on par

Provincial Osorno+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. Puerto Montt ↓

Provincial Osorno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

D. Puerto Montt or draw

79%

D. Puerto Montt or Provincial Osorno

77%

Draw or Provincial Osorno

44%

Winning margin

D. Puerto Montt wins by 2+

31%

Provincial Osorno wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

D. Puerto Montt 1+ goals

83%

D. Puerto Montt 2+ goals

53%

D. Puerto Montt 3+ goals

26%

Provincial Osorno 1+ goals

63%

Provincial Osorno 2+ goals

26%

Provincial Osorno 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

D. Puerto Montt (draw refunded)

73%

Provincial Osorno (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. Puerto Montt at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.72 · 25 matches

Provincial Osorno away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.58 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. Puerto Montt attack 1.96 + Provincial Osorno defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.77

Provincial Osorno attack 1.26 + D. Puerto Montt defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

D. Puerto Montt scores more

56%

level

23%

Provincial Osorno scores more

21%

D. Puerto Montt at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "D. Puerto Montt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff