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Prostějov vs Hanácká — FNL 2019

Prostějov
Prostějov
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Hanácká
Hanácká
11/11/2023FNLFNL · Round 16Stadion 1. HFK Olomouc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Prostějov49%
×Draw24%
Hanácká27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Prostějov
1.69
Hanácká
1.20

Prostějov creates 41% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 30 away

creates per match

Prostějov
1.40
Hanácká
1.10

allows per match

Prostějov
1.30
Hanácká
1.97

finishing

Prostějov+0.00on par
Hanácká+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prostějov ↓

Hanácká →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Prostějov or draw
73%
Prostějov or Hanácká
76%
Draw or Hanácká
51%

Winning margin

Prostějov wins by 2+
26%
Hanácká wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Prostějov 1+ goals
82%
Prostějov 2+ goals
50%
Prostějov 3+ goals
24%
Hanácká 1+ goals
70%
Hanácká 2+ goals
34%
Hanácká 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Prostějov (draw refunded)
64%
Hanácká (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prostějov at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.30 · 103 matches

Hanácká away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prostějov attack 1.40 + Hanácká defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.69

Hanácká attack 1.10 + Prostějov defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Prostějov scores more
49%
level
24%
Hanácká scores more
27%

Prostějov at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Prostějov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Prostějov vs Hanácká

Hanácká beat Prostějov 1-0 in FNL on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion 1. HFK Olomouc in Olomouc.