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Hanácká vs Prostějov — FNL 2019

Hanácká
Hanácká
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Prostějov
Prostějov
7/29/2023FNLFNL · Round 2Stadion Jožky Silného

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Hanácká44%
×Draw26%
Prostějov29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hanácká
1.45
Prostějov
1.13

Hanácká creates 28% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 103 away

creates per match

Hanácká
1.07
Prostějov
1.02

allows per match

Hanácká
1.23
Prostějov
1.83

finishing

Hanácká+0.00on par
Prostějov+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hanácká ↓

Prostějov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Hanácká or draw
71%
Hanácká or Prostějov
74%
Draw or Prostějov
56%

Winning margin

Hanácká wins by 2+
22%
Prostějov wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hanácká 1+ goals
77%
Hanácká 2+ goals
42%
Hanácká 3+ goals
18%
Prostějov 1+ goals
68%
Prostějov 2+ goals
31%
Prostějov 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hanácká (draw refunded)
60%
Prostějov (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hanácká at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

Prostějov away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.83 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hanácká attack 1.07 + Prostějov defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.45

Prostějov attack 1.02 + Hanácká defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hanácká scores more
44%
level
26%
Prostějov scores more
29%

Hanácká at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hanácká will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FNL: Hanácká 3–0 Prostějov

Hanácká beat Prostějov 3-0 in FNL on July 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Jožky Silného in Kroměříž.