Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Próspera Criciuma vs Marcílio Dias — Serie D 2018

Próspera Criciuma
Próspera Criciuma
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Marcílio Dias
Marcílio Dias
5/8/2022Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Domingos Silveira Gonzales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Próspera Criciuma34%
×Draw28%
Marcílio Dias39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Próspera Criciuma
1.15
Marcílio Dias
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 39 away

creates per match

Próspera Criciuma
0.86
Marcílio Dias
0.79

allows per match

Próspera Criciuma
1.71
Marcílio Dias
1.44

finishing

Próspera Criciuma+0.00on par
Marcílio Dias+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Próspera Criciuma ↓

Marcílio Dias →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Próspera Criciuma or draw
61%
Próspera Criciuma or Marcílio Dias
72%
Draw or Marcílio Dias
66%

Winning margin

Próspera Criciuma wins by 2+
14%
Marcílio Dias wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Próspera Criciuma 1+ goals
68%
Próspera Criciuma 2+ goals
32%
Próspera Criciuma 3+ goals
11%
Marcílio Dias 1+ goals
71%
Marcílio Dias 2+ goals
36%
Marcílio Dias 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Próspera Criciuma (draw refunded)
47%
Marcílio Dias (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Próspera Criciuma at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Marcílio Dias away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.44 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Próspera Criciuma attack 0.86 + Marcílio Dias defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.15

Marcílio Dias attack 0.79 + Próspera Criciuma defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Próspera Criciuma scores more
34%
level
28%
Marcílio Dias scores more
39%

Marcílio Dias at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Marcílio Dias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Próspera Criciuma 0–1 Marcílio Dias

Marcílio Dias beat Próspera Criciuma 1-0 in Serie D on May 8, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Domingos Silveira Gonzales in Tubarão, Santa Catarina.