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Marcílio Dias vs Próspera Criciuma — Serie D 2018

Marcílio Dias
Marcílio Dias
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Próspera Criciuma
Próspera Criciuma
6/26/2022Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 11Estádio Doutor Hercílio Luz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Marcílio Dias52%
×Draw31%
Próspera Criciuma17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marcílio Dias
1.20
Próspera Criciuma
0.55

Marcílio Dias creates 118% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 7 away

creates per match

Marcílio Dias
1.26
Próspera Criciuma
0.43

allows per match

Marcílio Dias
0.67
Próspera Criciuma
1.14

finishing

Marcílio Dias+0.00on par
Próspera Criciuma+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marcílio Dias ↓

Próspera Criciuma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–110%
0–23%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
52%48%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Marcílio Dias or draw
83%
Marcílio Dias or Próspera Criciuma
69%
Draw or Próspera Criciuma
48%

Winning margin

Marcílio Dias wins by 2+
24%
Próspera Criciuma wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Marcílio Dias 1+ goals
70%
Marcílio Dias 2+ goals
34%
Marcílio Dias 3+ goals
12%
Próspera Criciuma 1+ goals
42%
Próspera Criciuma 2+ goals
11%
Próspera Criciuma 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Marcílio Dias (draw refunded)
75%
Próspera Criciuma (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marcílio Dias at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.67 · 39 matches

Próspera Criciuma away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marcílio Dias attack 1.26 + Próspera Criciuma defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.20

Próspera Criciuma attack 0.43 + Marcílio Dias defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Marcílio Dias scores more
52%
level
31%
Próspera Criciuma scores more
17%

Marcílio Dias at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Marcílio Dias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marcílio Dias vs Próspera Criciuma

Marcílio Dias beat Próspera Criciuma 2-0 in Serie D on June 26, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Doutor Hercílio Luz in Itajaí, Santa Catarina.