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Ntopwa vs CIVO United — Super League 2026

Ntopwa
Ntopwa
FT
0 – 4
CIVO United
CIVO United
4/11/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Round 9Mpira Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ntopwa32%
×Draw27%
CIVO United40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ntopwa
1.13
CIVO United
1.29

CIVO United creates 14% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 80 away

creates per match

Ntopwa
1.11
CIVO United
1.06

allows per match

Ntopwa
1.53
CIVO United
1.15

finishing

Ntopwa+0.00on par
CIVO United+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ntopwa ↓

CIVO United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ntopwa or draw
60%
Ntopwa or CIVO United
73%
Draw or CIVO United
68%

Winning margin

Ntopwa wins by 2+
13%
CIVO United wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Ntopwa 1+ goals
68%
Ntopwa 2+ goals
31%
Ntopwa 3+ goals
11%
CIVO United 1+ goals
72%
CIVO United 2+ goals
37%
CIVO United 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ntopwa (draw refunded)
45%
CIVO United (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ntopwa at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

CIVO United away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.15 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ntopwa attack 1.11 + CIVO United defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.13

CIVO United attack 1.06 + Ntopwa defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ntopwa scores more
32%
level
27%
CIVO United scores more
40%

CIVO United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "CIVO United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Ntopwa 0–4 CIVO United

CIVO United beat Ntopwa 4-0 in Super League on April 11, 2021.

The match was played at Mpira Stadium in Blantyre.