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CIVO United vs Ntopwa — Super League 2026

CIVO United
CIVO United
FT
3 – 0
Ntopwa
Ntopwa
9/23/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Round 23CIVO Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

CIVO United61%
×Draw25%
Ntopwa15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CIVO United
1.60
Ntopwa
0.64

CIVO United creates 150% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 16 away

creates per match

CIVO United
1.20
Ntopwa
0.69

allows per match

CIVO United
0.59
Ntopwa
2.00

finishing

CIVO United+0.00on par
Ntopwa+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CIVO United ↓

Ntopwa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

CIVO United or draw
85%
CIVO United or Ntopwa
75%
Draw or Ntopwa
39%

Winning margin

CIVO United wins by 2+
33%
Ntopwa wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

CIVO United 1+ goals
80%
CIVO United 2+ goals
47%
CIVO United 3+ goals
22%
Ntopwa 1+ goals
47%
Ntopwa 2+ goals
14%
Ntopwa 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

CIVO United (draw refunded)
80%
Ntopwa (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CIVO United at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.59 · 79 matches

Ntopwa away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CIVO United attack 1.20 + Ntopwa defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Ntopwa attack 0.69 + CIVO United defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

CIVO United scores more
61%
level
25%
Ntopwa scores more
15%

CIVO United at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "CIVO United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CIVO United vs Ntopwa

CIVO United beat Ntopwa 3-0 in Super League on September 23, 2021.

The match was played at CIVO Stadium in Lilongwe.