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Proleter Novi SAD vs OFK Vršac — Prva Liga 2018

Proleter Novi SAD
Proleter Novi SAD
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
OFK Vršac
OFK Vršac
11/20/2022Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 19Pivara Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Proleter Novi SAD45%
×Draw29%
OFK Vršac26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Proleter Novi SAD
1.23
OFK Vršac
0.85

Proleter Novi SAD creates 45% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 73 away

creates per match

Proleter Novi SAD
1.13
OFK Vršac
0.89

allows per match

Proleter Novi SAD
0.81
OFK Vršac
1.34

finishing

Proleter Novi SAD+0.00on par
OFK Vršac+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Proleter Novi SAD ↓

OFK Vršac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Proleter Novi SAD or draw
74%
Proleter Novi SAD or OFK Vršac
71%
Draw or OFK Vršac
55%

Winning margin

Proleter Novi SAD wins by 2+
20%
OFK Vršac wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Proleter Novi SAD 1+ goals
71%
Proleter Novi SAD 2+ goals
35%
Proleter Novi SAD 3+ goals
13%
OFK Vršac 1+ goals
57%
OFK Vršac 2+ goals
21%
OFK Vršac 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Proleter Novi SAD (draw refunded)
64%
OFK Vršac (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Proleter Novi SAD at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

OFK Vršac away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.34 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Proleter Novi SAD attack 1.13 + OFK Vršac defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.23

OFK Vršac attack 0.89 + Proleter Novi SAD defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Proleter Novi SAD scores more
45%
level
29%
OFK Vršac scores more
26%

Proleter Novi SAD at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Proleter Novi SAD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Proleter Novi SAD 1–0 OFK Vršac

Proleter Novi SAD beat OFK Vršac 1-0 in Prva Liga on November 20, 2022.

The match was played at Pivara Stadion in Čelarevo.