OFK Vršac 2–0 Proleter Novi SAD: Result & Stats

OFK Vršac

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Proleter Novi SAD

8/19/2022

Prva Liga · Round 4Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

OFK Vršac43%

×Draw30%

Proleter Novi SAD27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OFK VršacExpected goals in this matchProleter Novi SAD

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.87

OFK Vršac

1.17

Proleter Novi SAD

0.87

OFK Vršac creates 34% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 17 away

1.04

creates per match

1.06

0.68

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

OFK Vršac

1.04

Proleter Novi SAD

1.06

allows per match

OFK Vršac

0.68

Proleter Novi SAD

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

OFK Vršac+0.00on par

Proleter Novi SAD+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFK Vršac ↓

Proleter Novi SAD →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

OFK Vršac or draw

73%

OFK Vršac or Proleter Novi SAD

70%

Draw or Proleter Novi SAD

57%

Winning margin

OFK Vršac wins by 2+

18%

Proleter Novi SAD wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

OFK Vršac 1+ goals

69%

OFK Vršac 2+ goals

33%

OFK Vršac 3+ goals

11%

Proleter Novi SAD 1+ goals

58%

Proleter Novi SAD 2+ goals

22%

Proleter Novi SAD 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

OFK Vršac (draw refunded)

61%

Proleter Novi SAD (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFK Vršac at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.68 · 73 matches

Proleter Novi SAD away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFK Vršac attack 1.04 + Proleter Novi SAD defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.17

Proleter Novi SAD attack 1.06 + OFK Vršac defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

OFK Vršac scores more

43%

level

30%

Proleter Novi SAD scores more

27%

OFK Vršac at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "OFK Vršac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff