Proleter Novi SAD 0–1 Metalac GM: Result & Stats

Proleter Novi SAD

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Metalac GM

V. Đurić 56' (pen)

9/28/2022

Prva Liga · Round 11GAT Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Proleter Novi SAD44%

×Draw30%

Metalac GM27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Proleter Novi SADExpected goals in this matchMetalac GM

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.86

Proleter Novi SAD

1.19

Metalac GM

0.86

Proleter Novi SAD creates 38% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 70 away

1.13

creates per match

0.86

0.87

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Proleter Novi SAD

1.13

Metalac GM

0.86

allows per match

Proleter Novi SAD

0.87

Metalac GM

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Proleter Novi SAD+0.00on par

Metalac GM+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Proleter Novi SAD ↓

Metalac GM →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Proleter Novi SAD or draw

73%

Proleter Novi SAD or Metalac GM

70%

Draw or Metalac GM

56%

Winning margin

Proleter Novi SAD wins by 2+

19%

Metalac GM wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Proleter Novi SAD 1+ goals

70%

Proleter Novi SAD 2+ goals

33%

Proleter Novi SAD 3+ goals

12%

Metalac GM 1+ goals

58%

Metalac GM 2+ goals

21%

Metalac GM 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Proleter Novi SAD (draw refunded)

62%

Metalac GM (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Proleter Novi SAD at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Metalac GM away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.26 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Proleter Novi SAD attack 1.13 + Metalac GM defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Metalac GM attack 0.86 + Proleter Novi SAD defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Proleter Novi SAD scores more

44%

level

30%

Metalac GM scores more

27%

Proleter Novi SAD at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Proleter Novi SAD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'

V. ĐurićPenalty

57'

V. Balabanović← V. Ilić

57'

L. Serdar← S. Karišić

69'

V. Milosavljev← S. Vujaklija

69'

O. Luković← M. Milinković

75'

A. Ratković← L. Milošev

78'

M. Gluščević← J. Kokir

78'

N. Tričković← M. Radivojević

84'

N. Zakula

84'

N. Zakula

88'

M. Lukić← V. Đurić

Proleter

Metalac

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: B. Žigić

57'▲V. Balabanović←▼V. Ilić

57'▲L. Serdar←▼S. Karišić

69'▲V. Milosavljev←▼S. Vujaklija

78'▲M. Gluščević←▼J. Kokir

78'▲N. Tričković←▼M. Radivojević

Proleter Novi SAD substitutes

BalabanovićSerdarMilosavljevGluščevićTričković

Manager: G. Matković

69'▲O. Luković←▼M. Milinković

75'▲A. Ratković←▼L. Milošev

88'▲M. Lukić←▼V. Đurić

Metalac GM substitutes

LukovićRatkovićLukić