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Proleter Novi SAD vs Metalac GM — Super Liga 2018

Proleter Novi SAD
Proleter Novi SAD
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Metalac GM
Metalac GM
12/4/2021Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 19Stadion Karađorđe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Proleter Novi SAD46%
×Draw27%
Metalac GM27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Proleter Novi SAD
1.44
Metalac GM
1.03

Proleter Novi SAD creates 40% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 38 away

creates per match

Proleter Novi SAD
1.04
Metalac GM
1.05

allows per match

Proleter Novi SAD
1.01
Metalac GM
1.84

finishing

Proleter Novi SAD+0.00on par
Metalac GM+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Proleter Novi SAD ↓

Metalac GM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Proleter Novi SAD or draw
73%
Proleter Novi SAD or Metalac GM
73%
Draw or Metalac GM
54%

Winning margin

Proleter Novi SAD wins by 2+
23%
Metalac GM wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Proleter Novi SAD 1+ goals
76%
Proleter Novi SAD 2+ goals
42%
Proleter Novi SAD 3+ goals
18%
Metalac GM 1+ goals
64%
Metalac GM 2+ goals
28%
Metalac GM 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Proleter Novi SAD (draw refunded)
63%
Metalac GM (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Proleter Novi SAD at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.01 · 70 matches

Metalac GM away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.84 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Proleter Novi SAD attack 1.04 + Metalac GM defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.44

Metalac GM attack 1.05 + Proleter Novi SAD defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Proleter Novi SAD scores more
46%
level
27%
Metalac GM scores more
27%

Proleter Novi SAD at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Proleter Novi SAD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Proleter Novi SAD 1–0 Metalac GM

Proleter Novi SAD beat Metalac GM 1-0 in Super Liga on December 4, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Karađorđe in Novi Sad.