Proleter Novi SAD 0–2 Loznica: Result & Stats

Proleter Novi SAD

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Loznica

I. Vićentijević 72'

D. Komarčević 54'

4/12/2023

Prva Liga · Round 29Pivara Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Proleter Novi SAD43%

×Draw31%

Loznica26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Proleter Novi SADExpected goals in this matchLoznica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.82

Proleter Novi SAD

1.15

Loznica

0.82

Proleter Novi SAD creates 40% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 73 away

1.13

creates per match

0.78

0.87

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Proleter Novi SAD

1.13

Loznica

0.78

allows per match

Proleter Novi SAD

0.87

Loznica

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Proleter Novi SAD+0.00on par

Loznica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Proleter Novi SAD ↓

Loznica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Proleter Novi SAD or draw

74%

Proleter Novi SAD or Loznica

69%

Draw or Loznica

57%

Winning margin

Proleter Novi SAD wins by 2+

18%

Loznica wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Proleter Novi SAD 1+ goals

68%

Proleter Novi SAD 2+ goals

32%

Proleter Novi SAD 3+ goals

11%

Loznica 1+ goals

56%

Loznica 2+ goals

20%

Loznica 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Proleter Novi SAD (draw refunded)

62%

Loznica (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Proleter Novi SAD at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Loznica away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.16 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Proleter Novi SAD attack 1.13 + Loznica defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Loznica attack 0.78 + Proleter Novi SAD defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Proleter Novi SAD scores more

43%

level

31%

Loznica scores more

26%

Proleter Novi SAD at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Proleter Novi SAD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

D. Komarčević← I. Pantić

54'

D. Komarčević

61'

L. Serdar← K. Živković

61'

D. Vlalukin← R. Obeng

70'

S. Vujaklija← V. Mladenović

70'

L. Daničić← M. Jokić

72'

I. Vićentijević

78'

S. Santrač← J. Jevremović

80'

F. Camara← V. Milosavljev

90+2'

S. Radmanovac← U. Damnjanović

90+2'

N. Ivanović← R. Abubakar

90+2'

M. Stojanović← I. Vićentijević

Proleter

Loznica

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: B. Žigić

61'▲L. Serdar←▼K. Živković

61'▲D. Vlalukin←▼R. Obeng

70'▲S. Vujaklija←▼V. Mladenović

70'▲L. Daničić←▼M. Jokić

80'▲F. Camara←▼V. Milosavljev

Proleter Novi SAD substitutes

SerdarVlalukinVujaklijaDaničićCamara

Manager: A. Janjić

46'▲D. Komarčević←▼I. Pantić

78'▲S. Santrač←▼J. Jevremović

90+2'▲S. Radmanovac←▼U. Damnjanović

90+2'▲N. Ivanović←▼R. Abubakar

90+2'▲M. Stojanović←▼I. Vićentijević

Loznica substitutes

KomarčevićSantračRadmanovacIvanovićStojanović

Match Recap: Proleter Novi SAD vs Loznica

Loznica beat Proleter Novi SAD 2-0 in Prva Liga on April 12, 2023.

Goals: D. Komarčević (54'), I. Vićentijević (72').

The match was played at Pivara Stadion in Čelarevo.

Proleter Novi SAD vs Loznica — Prva Liga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Proleter Novi SAD vs Loznica