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Loznica vs Proleter Novi SAD — Prva Liga 2018

Loznica
Loznica
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Proleter Novi SAD
Proleter Novi SAD
10/16/2022Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 14Stadion Lagator

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Loznica45%
×Draw27%
Proleter Novi SAD28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Loznica
1.42
Proleter Novi SAD
1.06

Loznica creates 34% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 17 away

creates per match

Loznica
1.54
Proleter Novi SAD
1.06

allows per match

Loznica
1.07
Proleter Novi SAD
1.29

finishing

Loznica+0.00on par
Proleter Novi SAD+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loznica ↓

Proleter Novi SAD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Loznica or draw
72%
Loznica or Proleter Novi SAD
73%
Draw or Proleter Novi SAD
55%

Winning margin

Loznica wins by 2+
22%
Proleter Novi SAD wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Loznica 1+ goals
76%
Loznica 2+ goals
41%
Loznica 3+ goals
17%
Proleter Novi SAD 1+ goals
65%
Proleter Novi SAD 2+ goals
29%
Proleter Novi SAD 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Loznica (draw refunded)
62%
Proleter Novi SAD (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loznica at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.07 · 70 matches

Proleter Novi SAD away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loznica attack 1.54 + Proleter Novi SAD defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.42

Proleter Novi SAD attack 1.06 + Loznica defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Loznica scores more
45%
level
27%
Proleter Novi SAD scores more
28%

Loznica at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Loznica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Loznica 1–4 Proleter Novi SAD

Proleter Novi SAD beat Loznica 4-1 in Prva Liga on October 16, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Lagator in Loznica.