Proleter Novi SAD 2–1 IMT Novi Beograd

Proleter Novi SAD

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

IMT Novi Beograd

J. Ilić 80' (pen), 54' (pen)

N. Glišić 45'

10/30/2022

Prva Liga · Round 16Pivara Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Proleter Novi SAD34%

×Draw28%

IMT Novi Beograd38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Proleter Novi SADExpected goals in this matchIMT Novi Beograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.19

Proleter Novi SAD

1.12

IMT Novi Beograd

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 54 away

1.13

creates per match

1.57

0.81

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Proleter Novi SAD

1.13

IMT Novi Beograd

1.57

allows per match

Proleter Novi SAD

0.81

IMT Novi Beograd

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Proleter Novi SAD+0.00on par

IMT Novi Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Proleter Novi SAD ↓

IMT Novi Beograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Proleter Novi SAD or draw

62%

Proleter Novi SAD or IMT Novi Beograd

72%

Draw or IMT Novi Beograd

66%

Winning margin

Proleter Novi SAD wins by 2+

14%

IMT Novi Beograd wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Proleter Novi SAD 1+ goals

67%

Proleter Novi SAD 2+ goals

31%

Proleter Novi SAD 3+ goals

10%

IMT Novi Beograd 1+ goals

70%

IMT Novi Beograd 2+ goals

33%

IMT Novi Beograd 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Proleter Novi SAD (draw refunded)

48%

IMT Novi Beograd (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Proleter Novi SAD at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

IMT Novi Beograd away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.11 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Proleter Novi SAD attack 1.13 + IMT Novi Beograd defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.12

IMT Novi Beograd attack 1.57 + Proleter Novi SAD defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Proleter Novi SAD scores more

34%

level

28%

IMT Novi Beograd scores more

38%

IMT Novi Beograd at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "IMT Novi Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

N. Glišić

54'

J. IlićPenalty

59'

K. Živković← S. Karišić

59'

M. Balabanović← J. Kokir

63'

N. Kodžić← D. Vidić

63'

S. Stefanović← P. Ćirković

74'

A. Stevanović← V. Kijevčanin

75'

V. Milosavljev← S. Vujaklija

80'

J. IlićPenalty

88'

V. Ilić← J. Ilić

88'

A. Andrejević← V. Balabanović

89'

M. Blažić← A. Blagojević

Proleter

IMT

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Ilić

Manager: B. Žigić

59'▲K. Živković←▼S. Karišić

59'▲M. Balabanović←▼J. Kokir

75'▲V. Milosavljev←▼S. Vujaklija

88'▲V. Ilić←▼J. Ilić

88'▲A. Andrejević←▼V. Balabanović

Proleter Novi SAD substitutes

ŽivkovićBalabanovićMilosavljevIlićAndrejević

Manager: Z. Vasiljević

63'▲N. Kodžić←▼D. Vidić

63'▲S. Stefanović←▼P. Ćirković

74'▲A. Stevanović←▼V. Kijevčanin

89'▲M. Blažić←▼A. Blagojević

IMT Novi Beograd substitutes

KodžićStefanovićStevanovićBlažić

Match Recap: Proleter Novi SAD vs IMT Novi Beograd

Proleter Novi SAD beat IMT Novi Beograd 2-1 in Prva Liga on October 30, 2022.

Goals: N. Glišić (45'), J. Ilić (54' pen, 80' pen).

The match was played at Pivara Stadion in Čelarevo.

Proleter Novi SAD vs IMT Novi Beograd — Prva Liga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Proleter Novi SAD vs IMT Novi Beograd