IMT Novi Beograd 4–1 Proleter Novi SAD

IMT Novi Beograd

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Proleter Novi SAD

D. Vidić 90+3', 84'

M. Luković 58'

N. Vukić 45'

S. Vujaklija 57' (pen)

7/30/2022

Prva Liga · Round 1Stadion FK IMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

IMT Novi Beograd52%

×Draw25%

Proleter Novi SAD23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IMT Novi BeogradExpected goals in this matchProleter Novi SAD

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.98

IMT Novi Beograd

1.61

Proleter Novi SAD

0.98

IMT Novi Beograd creates 64% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 17 away

1.93

creates per match

1.06

0.89

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

IMT Novi Beograd

1.93

Proleter Novi SAD

1.06

allows per match

IMT Novi Beograd

0.89

Proleter Novi SAD

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IMT Novi Beograd+0.00on par

Proleter Novi SAD+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IMT Novi Beograd ↓

Proleter Novi SAD →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

IMT Novi Beograd or draw

77%

IMT Novi Beograd or Proleter Novi SAD

75%

Draw or Proleter Novi SAD

48%

Winning margin

IMT Novi Beograd wins by 2+

28%

Proleter Novi SAD wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

IMT Novi Beograd 1+ goals

80%

IMT Novi Beograd 2+ goals

48%

IMT Novi Beograd 3+ goals

22%

Proleter Novi SAD 1+ goals

62%

Proleter Novi SAD 2+ goals

26%

Proleter Novi SAD 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

IMT Novi Beograd (draw refunded)

69%

Proleter Novi SAD (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IMT Novi Beograd at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.89 · 54 matches

Proleter Novi SAD away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IMT Novi Beograd attack 1.93 + Proleter Novi SAD defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.61

Proleter Novi SAD attack 1.06 + IMT Novi Beograd defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

IMT Novi Beograd scores more

52%

level

25%

Proleter Novi SAD scores more

23%

IMT Novi Beograd at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "IMT Novi Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

N. Vukić

46'

A. Andrejević← L. Serdar

57'

S. VujaklijaPenalty

58'

M. Luković

65'

N. Kodžić← N. Vukić

66'

D. Vlalukin← N. Vukmanović

77'

A. Stevanović← V. Radočaj

77'

D. Vidić← M. Luković

80'

V. Mladenović← S. Karišić

84'

D. Vidić

86'

M. Blažić← U. Stamenić

90+3'

D. Vidić

IMT

Proleter

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Vukić

⚽

▼

Luković

▼

Radočaj

Glišić

Manager: Z. Vasiljević

65'▲N. Kodžić←▼N. Vukić

77'▲A. Stevanović←▼V. Radočaj

77'▲D. Vidić←▼M. Luković

86'▲M. Blažić←▼U. Stamenić

IMT Novi Beograd substitutes

KodžićStevanovićVidićBlažić

Manager: A. Radunović

46'▲A. Andrejević←▼L. Serdar

66'▲D. Vlalukin←▼N. Vukmanović

80'▲V. Mladenović←▼S. Karišić

Proleter Novi SAD substitutes

AndrejevićVlalukinMladenović

Prva Liga: IMT Novi Beograd 4–1 Proleter Novi SAD

IMT Novi Beograd beat Proleter Novi SAD 4-1 in Prva Liga on July 30, 2022.

Goals: N. Vukić (45'), S. Vujaklija (57' pen), M. Luković (58'), D. Vidić (84', 90+3').

The match was played at Stadion FK IMT in Novi Beograd.

IMT Novi Beograd vs Proleter Novi SAD — Prva Liga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Prva Liga: IMT Novi Beograd 4–1 Proleter Novi SAD